US
United States
The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October, but the vote was split 10 to 2, with two officials dissenting in favour of another hike. The data gave them reason to worry: the economy grew at a 3.4% annualised pace in the third quarter, ahead of the 3.1% expected, while September CPI picked up to 3.7%. The month’s big story was a sharp sell-off in chip stocks. Intel lost about 45% in October, its worst month on record, after weak guidance blamed on a slowing PC market, and the chip index suffered its longest losing streak since 2008 as worries about the AI build-out grew. The S&P 500 slipped 0.93%, with defensive sectors such as consumer staples, energy and healthcare leading while technology and telecoms lagged.
ZA
South Africa
Petrol broke R30 a litre for the first time on 7 October, with 95 inland rising R3.33 to a record R30.25 and diesel also at an all-time high. In his Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement on 21 October, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana said public finances had stabilised, helped by higher commodity prices, and announced a temporary fuel levy cut of R1.50 a litre on petrol and R3.00 on diesel from 4 November to 1 December. CPI rose to 4.5% in September, and the SARB’s Monetary Policy Review cut its 2026 growth forecast to 1.2%, expecting inflation to reach the 3% target only in 2028. The repo rate stayed at 7.25% ahead of the 19 November meeting. The JSE eased 0.82% as falling gold and platinum prices weighed on resources, and the rand weakened 1.7% to around R16.71 against the dollar.
BR
Brazil
President Lula won the 25 October runoff with 51.8% of the vote against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 48.2%, an outcome markets had not priced in. The real fell sharply the next day and the B3 exchange triggered its first circuit breaker since the pandemic as Brazilian stocks slumped. Bolsonaro said he would not recognise the result and would ask the electoral courts to annul the runoff, adding political uncertainty to the sell-off. Brazil was the weakest of the major markets we track for the month, falling 9.65%.
ME
Middle East
The US and Iran conflict kept energy markets on edge. Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely paralysed, with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard reporting fires on tankers that tried to use unauthorised routes, and no deal in sight to reopen the waterway. With supply still constrained, Brent crude rose 15.71% over the month to $113.43 a barrel, feeding straight into fuel prices around the world, including South Africa’s record pump prices.
Global
Geopolitics & Trade
Higher energy prices and expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer drove precious metals to one of their worst months in years. Silver fell 18.81% to below $50 an ounce, platinum dropped 16.46% and gold lost 6.80%, slipping below $4,000. Central banks largely paused: the Fed held, and the Bank of Japan kept its rate at 1.25% on 30 October but signalled a possible December hike. Bonds recovered some ground, gaining 1.73% as an asset class, while crypto fell 10.09%. Global equities ended the month down 1.72% as measured by the MSCI ACWI.